Snapshot - 06 July 2026
Wholesale energy prices ended last week higher, with gas leading the move. Stalled diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz rebuilt a geopolitical premium just as another European heatwave lifted cooling demand, and NBP front-month gained around 10 per cent on the week to settle near 108 pence per therm. Monday morning brought a slightly softer prompt, though the forward curve held firm on thin liquidity.
Power followed gas. Friday's day-ahead settled sharply lower on strong weekend solar and fading demand, but indications recovered to £93 to £99 per megawatt hour on Monday as wind forecasts weakened and heat built. Forward contracts firmed across the board, with winter baseload approaching £100 per megawatt hour, and possible cooling restrictions on the French nuclear fleet add a further layer of continental risk.
Across the wider complex, Brent held near $72 per barrel despite a further reported rise in OPEC+ output targets, coal gained around 5 per cent on the week, and carbon firmed on both sides of the Channel, with EUAs settling above €80 per tonne. European gas storage crossed the halfway mark over the weekend but remains around ten percentage points below last year, keeping supply security in focus through the summer injection season.
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