Snapshot - 04 February 2026
European gas reversed a soft start as cooler model revisions lifted the prompt, with AIFS and GFS now pointing to temperatures around 3–4 degrees below seasonal norms into mid-February. Front-month NBP rebounded toward 79.40p/therm from sub-78p levels, while the broader balance remains comfortable. The UK system opened long, Norwegian flows are steady, and LNG availability is strong. Power firmed in sympathy with gas, carbon eased, and crude edged higher on renewed Middle East tension after a US–Iran drone incident.
Gas bounced at the front on weather but fundamentals continue to cap the move. Demand is tracking roughly 20 mcm/day below seasonal norms, LNG send-out remains healthy after a heavy January arrival slate, and Norwegian exports are stable despite ongoing Nyhamna maintenance of close to 20 mcm/day. Further out, the curve is softer. Summer-26 and Winter-26 eased on the week as US Henry Hub weakness reinforces Atlantic LNG optionality. EU storage stands near 40.5 per cent and withdrawals have slowed, keeping injection risk in view but reducing immediate pressure.
Power followed gas higher this morning after easing earlier in the week. Day-ahead baseload settled near £87.78/MWh as strong wind covered around 44 per cent of GB generation, limiting gas-for-power despite rising demand. Curve power drifted lower on the back of softer gas and carbon, with nuclear outages still a background constraint. Wind remains the swing factor, strong near term but forecast to dip below seasonal from the weekend, which could re-tighten prompt margins.
Oil firmed modestly on US–Iran tension, though physical indicators remain loose. Carbon slipped with EUAs near €83/t and UKAs around £63/t, tracking the earlier bearish impulse in gas and power. Overall, the market is weather-led at the prompt, but with supply ample and storage draws easing, rallies continue to fade unless colder signals extend.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.