Gas and power both fell on Tuesday as reports of a possible US-Iran understanding drained the risk premium out of the market. UK gas day-ahead settled a touch below the mid-220s p/therm, several points lower on the day, and the forward curve shed a similar amount across every contract out to Winter 2027. The week-on-week picture is a fall of roughly 5 to 8 per cent along the gas strip. The sell-off was unwinding sentiment rather than a change in fundamentals, and the move has since started to reverse after reports of fresh tanker losses in the Strait of Hormuz.
Power eased more modestly. Day-ahead baseload settled in the low £200s/MWh, down around £3, while curve contracts gave up £4 to £5/MWh. The prompt is holding a substantial premium to the front-month contract, which reflects a genuinely tight system: around a gigawatt of nuclear capacity is offline, wind output is falling away and gas plant is setting the price through most of the day. Intraday swings were wide, with the system price running from the mid-£150s overnight to just under £350/MWh in the evening ramp.
Across the wider complex, Brent slipped to a little above $103/bbl and is down around 9 per cent on the week, while coal fell by a similar weekly margin. Carbon diverged: EU allowances drifted lower on the day but remain higher on the week, while UK allowances firmed, narrowing the UKA discount to EUAs by roughly £1.50/tonne. European gas storage is around three-quarters full, which is below where the market would normally want it at this point in November, and that deficit is keeping next summer’s gas contract trading above the winter that follows it. Sterling was broadly flat.
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