Snapshot - 02 October 2026
UK wholesale energy markets pulled in two directions on Thursday. Forward gas and power contracts firmed across the board as reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz put a geopolitical premium back into the curve, with near-dated gas gaining roughly 4p/therm and winter power contracts adding several pounds per megawatt hour. The prompt went the other way, with day-ahead gas and power both easing as the system ran long through much of the day.
Supply fundamentals are quietly improving even as prices price in risk. Norwegian flows have now risen for six consecutive days after summer maintenance wrapped up, UK pipeline deliveries are running at multiples of Monday's level and a handful of LNG cargoes are tracked in before mid-October. Set against that, European storage ended September meaningfully below last year, UK nuclear availability is thin with three reactors offline, and wind output is forecast to fall away into next week, all of which keeps a floor under winter contracts. Power prices tracked gas higher on the curve while the near-dated market softened, and intraday prices swung widely, from the low £60s per megawatt hour overnight to above £220 at the evening peak.
In the wider complex, crude rallied around 4 per cent as China pulled its oil product exports from the market, coal was broadly flat and carbon firmed on both UK and EU schemes, with UK allowances outperforming their European counterparts for a second week. Sterling slipped against the dollar. Early indications on Friday show gas handing back the bulk of Thursday's gain as improving Norwegian supply reasserts itself, with power holding firmer.
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