Market Snapshot - 01 July 2026
Energy markets firmed on Wednesday morning as geopolitical risk returned to the fore. A faltering of US-Iran diplomacy, renewed weekend strikes and thinner traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed a risk premium back into gas and power, extending a natural gas rally into a third session. The NBP day-ahead settled around 106 pence per therm and the front-month firmed further this morning, supported by weak wind, returning heat and a European storage picture that remains close to a five-year low.
Power told a two-sided story. The forward baseload curve rose with gas, the front-month trading near £98 per megawatt hour, while the prompt fell sharply as forecasts pointed to a strong recovery in wind and solar and softer gas-for-power demand into next week. A heavily reduced nuclear fleet, both at home and in France, kept the curve supported even as the day-ahead came off its recent highs.
Across the wider complex, crude stayed soft, with Brent near $73 per barrel and down around 5 per cent on the week despite the Middle East tension, a sign of comfortable supply. Coal edged higher on the day, while carbon firmed on both sides of the Channel, UK Allowances near £57 per tonne and EU Allowances near €80 per tonne.
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